Into The Great Wide Open, Part I
I had originally planned to launch the PPR Spectacular last week, but found it imperative to wait until every big-name receiver signed with an NFL team before doing so. And now that Braylon Edwards has signed with San Francisco—momentarily distracting the media from his comical stolen Black Berry/Twitter impostor scandal—we have the green light to break out the always-fluid PPR rankings for wideouts:
1. Andre Johnson, Texans
2. Roddy White, Falcons
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
4. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
5. Calvin Johnson, Lions
6. Reggie Wayne, Colts
7. Miles Austin, Cowboys
8. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
9. Wes Welker, Patriots
10. Greg Jennings, Packers
11. Mike Wallace, Steelers
12. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
13. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
14. Marques Colston, Saints
15. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
16. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
17. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
18. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
19. Chad Ochocinco, Patriots
20. Santonio Holmes, Jets
21. Percy Harvin, Vikings
22. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
23. Kenny Britt, Titans (assuming his yoga instructor was legit)
24. Sidney Rice, Seahawks
25. Steve Johnson, Bills
Into The Great Wide Open, Part II
26. Pierre Garcon, Colts
27. Santana Moss, Redskins
28. Mario Manningham, Giants
29. Mike Thomas, Jaguars
30. A.J. Green, Bengals
31. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
32. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
33. Steve Smith, Panthers
34. Mike Williams, Seahawks
35. James Jones, Packers
36. Mike Sims-Walker, Rams
37. Jerome Simpson, Bengals
38. Steve Breaston, Chiefs
39. Robert Meachem, Saints
40. Johnny Knox, Bears
41. Austin Collie, Colts
42. Braylon Edwards, 49ers
43. Hines Ward, Steelers
44. Deion Branch, Patriots
45. Nate Burleson, Lions
46. Davone Bess, Dolphins
47. Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns
48. Danny Amendola, Rams
49. Malcom Floyd, Ravens (?)
50. Lance Moore, Saints
PPR Rules To Live By
1. Always Be Thinking Receiver
Obviously, you'll need quarterbacks, running backs, defenses/special teams to complement receivers and tight ends on PPR-based rosters. But no matter the round, you should always be pondering the next WR move, or at least factoring in how each draft pick adds value to the PPR format. Do my running backs have the capacity for 4 or more catches a game? Do I want to start a wide receiver in the RB/WR flex position every time? Are my QBs likely to attempt 40 or more passes in at least six games? Should I move heaven and earth to "handcuff" my quarterback (Matt Schaub) to a receiver who catches 95-plus balls in his sleep (Andre Johnson)?
2. Know Your Golden Goose Eggs
In standard-scoring leagues, versatile guys like Percy Harvin, Reggie Bush, Wes Welker, Jahvid Best, Reggie Wayne, Darren Sproles, Davone Bess, Wes Welker, Lance Moore, Danny Amendola, Jabar Gaffney and Steve Breaston might get passed over for red-zone magnets, at least in the early rounds. But to effectively win a PPR championship, you'll need a handful of the above names carrying the freight. Take Wayne, for example: Sure, he'll probably lose a TD battle to Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace (60 catches, 1,257 yards, 10 TDs last year) … but the Grand Canyon-like disparity in receptions (Wayne has triple-digit catches in three of the last four seasons) makes this a dead heat (with a nod to Reggie).
3. Respect The Laws Of 'Disproportionality'
At this point, neither Andre Roberts (Cardinals), David Gettis (Panthers), Bernard Berrian (Vikings), Arrelious Benn (Bucs), Torrey Smith (Ravens), Lee Evans (Bills), Greg Little (Browns) nor Eddie Royal (Broncos), Jason Hill (Jaguars), Patrick Crayton (Chargers), Nate Washington (Titans) are viable No. 2 receivers in fantasyland; and only Morgan, Benn or Evans are even draft-worthy, on average, in 12-teams leagues. This black hole at such a crucial slot can only mean more receiving targets for Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin, Tampa's Mike Wiliams, Anquan Boldin, Steve Johnson, Mohammed Massaqoui and Brandon Lloyd, Mike Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Kenny Britt. Give 'em special attention on draft day.
4. Quarterbacks Can Wait
Quarterbacks have the exact same value in standard-scoring and PPR leagues; but strangely, they are routinely drafted lower in PPRs, as owners devote their first seven or eight picks to pass-friendly receivers, tailbacks and tight ends. Smart move, even if the reasoning is somewhat convoluted. Yes, we would all love to own one of the Big Six QBs (Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers), but target-driven wideouts, tight ends and tradeable depth at running back usually hold the keys to a PPR title.
The Lightning Round
I had time Wednesday morning for a quick 12-team PPR mock draft (12th pick overall). Here's my squad:
Round 1—RB Darren McFadden, Raiders (sneaky-good pass-catcher broke 100 total yards in 10 of 13 games last year)
Round 2—WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants (mark him down for 85 catches/1,150 yards/10 TDs)
Round 3—WR Marques Colston, Saints (the fantasy gift that keeps on giving—when healthy)
Round 4—WR Mike Wallace, Steelers
Round 5—TE Jason Witten, Cowboys (the PPR gold standard)
Round 6—WR Kenny Britt, Titans
Round 7—RB Joseph Addai, Colts
Round 8—RB Reggie Bush, Dolphins (he'll tally at least 50 catches/6 TDs)
Round 9—WR A.J. Green, Bengals (needed an upside pick at receiver …)
Round 10—QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
Round 11—RB Mikel Leshoure, Lions (… and one at running back)
Round 12—QB Matt Cassel, Chiefs (rock-solid platoon with Stafford)
Round 13—D/ST Dallas Cowboys
Round 14—PK Nate Kaeding, Chargers
Round 15—WR Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns (my #1 sleeper for Round 12-or-later wideouts)
Buffalo Solider Of Fortune
The enduring image of Bills WR Steve Johnson lies with his dropped TD-catch in OT against Pittsburgh last year … and subsequent Tweet where he questioned the good lord's quirky sense of humor. But there's more to Johnson than a few seconds of YouTube bliss. He is the centerpiece of Buffalo's renewed commitment to the vertical passing game; he's also the face—mohawk and all—of a small-market club that's struggling to convince fans it won't be moving to Los Angeles in the not-too-distant future. Hmmm, perhaps a series of self-actualizing Revelations will help crystallize Johnson's fantasy fate in 2011:
What He'll Like: Fred Jackson's respectable numbers from last year (1,142 total yards/7 TDs) were essentially compressed into an nine-week period (Games 5-13) … leading one to wonder if Jackson has enough physical talent to sustain for a full season—especially since Cleveland and Detroit aren't on the docket again. Bottom line: When Jackson gets 20 touches and serves as an integral part of the Buffalo offense, he's a virtual lock for 120 total yards.
What He May Like: There's a reason why the Bills sprinted to the commissioner's podium to grab Clemson's C.J. Spiller with the No. 9 pick in the 2010 draft; and there's a reason why Buffalo's brain trust passed on RBs Ryan Williams and Mikel Leshoure in April's draft. Spiller, despite a rough rookie year (440 total yards, 1 TD), is the club's redoubtable back of the future; and with his impressive size/speed/athleticism combo, that future greatness may come to pass sooner than later. Bottom line: Coach Chan Gailey and Co. must find a way to get both Jackson and Spiller at least 22 touches per game. By extension, this creates more route-running lanes for Johnson and Lee Evans.
What He May Not Like: No one likes getting older, and Evans is no different. From age 22-27, he was an annual threat for 60 catches, 950 yards and 6-7 TDs; but in the last two seasons, he has faded into fantasy oblivion, essentially maxing out at 40 catches and 600 yards. But through it all, Evans is still good for one scntillating game per season—like his 6-catch, 105-yard, 3-TD effort against Baltimore last year. But good luck guessing when Evans' one-week-only breakout for 2011 will occur.
What He May Not Like, Part II: From a physical standpoint, Buffalo's Shawn Nelson (career numbers: 20 catches, 181 yards, 1 TD) has the requisite size, speed and hands to be a productive NFL tight end, in the vicinity of Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew or Jared Cook. But for whatever reason, Nelson's practice maturity isn't translating to real-world growth. But it's a little too early to abandon ship just yet.
What He Might Love: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (3,000 passing yards/23 TDs) may have been a big surprise in western New York—not unlike Doug Flutie, circa 1998-99—but there's no guarantee he'll duplicate his 2010 numbers … especially since the AFC East has a thicker scouting report on the Harvard grad. Think about it: If you had Vince Young stand next to Fitzpatrick, you'd tab VY as your franchise QB 10 times out of 10. It's not a blowout—like Flutie vs. Rob Johnson—but the discrepancy would make Bills fans stand up and ask, "Why didn't Buffalo want Young? What did the franchise have to lose by implementing him slowly into Gailey's system? Instead, the Bills traded for Tyler Thigpen, a slightly younger, noticeably nimbler version of Fitzpatrick—but hardly a long-term solution.
What He Might Love, Part II: Whether it's tackles like Demetrius Bell, Ed Wang, Mansfield Wrotto, Chris Hairston or interior building blocks like Andy Levitre, Eric Wood and Kraig Urbik, the Bills' O-line is evolving into a formidable unit, albeit slowly. That can only mean good news for Fitzpatrick—or whoever else could be playing QB next year—along with Jackson and Spiller. Similar to Tennessee's underrated O-line, Buffalo's balanced front five is equally adept against the run and pass.
What He Might Love, Part III: Barring unforeseen greatness from Marcell Dareus, Shawne Merriman, Jackson, Spiller, Nelson and Johnson, among others, the Bills are the early favorites to post the AFC's worst record … which conveniently puts 'em in line to "win" Stanford QB Andrew Luck in next year's draft. By all accounts, Luck is a franchise-changing quarterback (in the class of Sam Bradford) and the Bills and Redskins—the NFC's purported worst team—may be duking it out for his services all year. FYI: Buffalo and Washington play Oct. 30 in Toronto … which may be one of the most underrated fantasy-friendly games of the year, starring two quarterbacks (Fitzpatrick and John Beck) who would give anything to NOT be holding a clipboard for Luck in 2012.
Target Practice
These 32 wideouts hit the century mark in targets last year. It goes without saying: If you're seeking quality choices for Points Per Reception league drafts, bookmark this link as part of that preparation:
1. Roddy White—179 targets
2. Reggie Wayne—176 targets
3. Larry Fitzgerald—173 targets
4. Brandon Lloyd—153 targets
5. Brandon Marshall—146 targets
6. Santana Moss—145 targets
7. Steve Johnson—142 targets
8. Terrell Owens—139
9. Andre Johnson—138
10. Calvin Johnson—137
11. Dwayne Bowe—133
12. Marques Colston—131
13. Hakeem Nicks—128
14. Mike Williams—128
15. Chad Ochocinco—126
16. Greg Jennings—124
17. Danny Amendola—123
18. Wes Welker—123
19. Davone Bess—122
20. Miles Austin—119
21. Pierre Garcon—11
22. Jeremy Maclin—115
23. Jabar Gaffney—112
24. Mike Williams—11
25. Anquan Boldin—109
26. Percy Harvin—109
27. Eddie Royal—105
28. Mike Wallace—102
29. Michael Crabtree—101
30. Braylon Edwards—101
31. Mike Thomas—101
32. Derrick Mason—100
Practice Makes Perfect
Fantasy owners should start easing into the soon-to-be exhaustive process of mock drafting. Here are five of the best sites for round-the-clock mocking—covering standard-scoring and keeper leagues. (ESPN.com, in my opinion, is the king of auction mocks.)
**ESPN Mock Draft Lobby
**Mock Draft Central *
**MyFantasyLeague.com
**CBS Sports Fantasy Lobby
**Fantasy Football Calculator
*The National Football Post has partnered with Mock Draft Central to bring our readers unlimited mock draft capabilities
Catch Them If You Can
ESPN.com, a great site for auction mock drafts, also dabbles in the numbers game. Here are ESPN's projections for 70 receptions or more among receivers:
1. Roddy White—101 catches
2. Andre Johnson—100 catches
3. Larry Fitzgerald—100 catches
4. Wes Welker—100 catches
5. Reggie Wayne—96
6. Hakeem Nicks—95
7. Brandon Marshall—86
8. Miles Austin—82
9. Dwayne Bowe—82
10. Steve Johnson—80
11. Davone Bess—80
12. Santana Moss—78
13. Dez Bryant—77
14. Greg Jennings—75
15. Santonio Holmes—73
16. Calvin Johnson—72
17. Percy Harvin—72
18. Mike Thomas—72
19. Anquan Boldin—71
20. Marques Colston—71
Sleeper Cells
I've been inundated with "super-sleeper" queries on Twitter. So, here are my top Round 12-or-later sleepers who may become certifiable diamonds by season's end: (Note: I expect rookie A.J. Green to be drafted in the middle rounds.)
1. Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns (ambitious praise for a guy with 70 career catches/5 TDs)
2. Mike Thomas, Jaguars
3. James Jones, Packers
4. Steve Breaston, Chiefs (Kansas City has an embarrassment of skill-position riches)
5. Brandon Tate, Patriots (the very definition of a high-upside breakout candidate)
6. Julio Jones, Falcons (will someday be a top-15 receiver)
7. Donnie Avery, Rams (Josh McDaniels + Bradford + Avery's 4.3 speed = 75 catches)
8. Lance Moore, Saints
9. Jordy Nelson, Packers
10. Earl Bennett, Bears
11. Jabar Gaffney, Redskins
12. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
13. Brian Robiskie, Browns
14. Stephen Williams, Cardinals
15. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers
16. Jacoby Jones, Texans
17. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders (his breakout is imminent—I think)
18. Titus Young, Lions (a physical clone of DeSean Jackson)
19. Ben Obomanu, Seahawks
20. Greg Little, Browns
21. Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs
22. Jordan Shipley, Bengals
23. Andre Roberts, Cardinals
24. Vincent Brown, Chargers
25. Torrey Smith, Rams / Leonard Hankerson, Redskins
Radio Daze
For better or worse, fantasy football is a way of life from July-December. If I'm not re-reading one of the 12 fantasy magazines that engulf my coffee table, or mindfully watching YouTube footage of old NFL.com commercials … I'm usually downloading one of the many fantasy-related podcasts on the Web. In fact, here are my favorite football-specific podcasts/radio shows:
1. ESPN—"Fantasy Focus" with Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz
2. CBSSports.com—"Fantasy Football" with Dave Richard and Jamey Eisneberg
3. KFAN in Minneapolis—"Fantasy Football Weekly" with Paul Charchian
4. RotoWire.com—"Fantasy Sports Podcast"
5. WDFN-AM in Detroit—"Fantasy Sports Geekly" with Sean Baligian (URL to come)
Double Your Pleasure
The forward-thinking genuises at Rotowire have painstakingly crunched the numbers to determine the NFL's best WR tandems in the vital categories of Targets, Catches, Yards Receiving and Total TDs:
Targets: Reggie Wayne (158), Pierre Garcon (107) = 255 total
Catches: Wes Welker (92), Chad Ochocinco (74) = 166 total
Receiving Yards: Miles Austin (1,233)/Dez Bryant (1,034) = 2,267 total
TDs: Austin/Bryant and Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham = 18 total (tie)
Here are my top-15 PPR tandems at receiver:
1. Miles Austin/Dez Bryant, Cowboys
2. Reggie Wayne/Pierre Garcon, Colts
3. Wes Welker/Chad Ochocinco, Patriots
4. DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
5. Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham, Giants
6. Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter, Texans
7. Greg Jennings/James Jones, Packers
8. Roddy White/Julio Jones, Falcons
9. Sidney Rice/Mike Williams, Seahawks
10. Calvin Johnson/Nate Burleson, Lions
11. Mike Wallace/Hines Ward, Steelers
12. Marques Colston/Robert Meachem, Saints
13. Brandon Marshall/Davone Bess, Dolphins
14. Dwayne Bowe/Steve Breaston, Chiefs
15. Jerome Simpson/A.J. Green, Bengals
Tiers Of A Clown: WRs
I'm hesitant to label this year's class of wide receivers as dime-a-dozen assets, even if only 17 wideouts are locks for 1,200 total yards and/or 8 TDs. That said, here are my five tiers for draft day:
Tier 1 (1,325 total yards and/or 10 TDs)
Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 2 (1,200 total yards and/or 8 TDs)
Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Kenny Britt, Santonio Holmes, Pierre Garcon, Dez Bryant, Mike Wallace
Tier 3 (1,100 total yards and/or 7 TDs)
Vincent Jackson, Brandon Lloyd, Jeremy Maclin, Sidney Rice, Chad Ochocinco, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin, Santana Moss, Steve Johnson, Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Donnie Avery, Mohammed Massaquoi, Mike Williams (Bucs), Mike Williams (Seahawks)
Tier 4 (950 total yards and/or 6 TDs)
Jerome Simpson, Austin Collie, Johnny Knox, A.J. Green, Malcom Floyd, Earl Bennett, Davone Bess, Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Robert Meachem, Jacoby Ford, Mike Thomas, Braylon Edwards, Hines Ward, Golden Tate, Danny Amendola, Arrelious Benn, James Jones, Louis Murphy, Jordy Nelson, Randy Moss, Lee Evans, Nate Burleson, Julio Jones, Lance Moore, Steve Breaston, Steve Smith (Panthers/trade bait?)
Tier 5 (800 total yards and/or 4 TDs)
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Anthony Armstrong, Terrell Owens, Nate Washington, Jacoby Jones, Derrick Mason, Ben Obomanu, Mike Sims-Walker, Jerricho Cotchery, Josh Morgan, Jabar Gaffney, Devin Hester, Kevin Walter, Eddie Royal, Jonathan Baldwin, Titus Young, Brian Hartline, Brian Robiskie, Donald Driver, Emmanuel Sanders, Mark Clayton, Blair White, Vincent Brown, Legedu Naanee, Eric Decker, Early Doucet, Danario Alexander, Jordan Shipley, Riley Cooper, Devery Henderson, Brandon LaFell, Cecil Shorts, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Little, Torrey Smith, Brandon Gibson, Steve Smith (Giants)
And With The 4th Pick In A PPR Draft …
Here's a great strategy for nailing your PPR draft with the No. 4 pick (12-teamer):
Round 1, Pick 4: Motive—Best overall player
1st option: RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs … 2nd option: RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles
Round 2, Pick 21 overall: Motive—Best stud WR available
1st option: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals … 2nd option: WR Miles Austin, Cowboys
Round 3, Pick 28: Motive—High-upside WR who's a healthy lock for 9 TDs
1st option: WR Mike Williams, Buccaneers … 2nd option: WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Round 4, Pick 45 overall: Motive—Best 100-catch candidate available
1st option: WR Brandon Marshall, Dolphins … 2nd option: WR Wes Welker, Patriots
Round 5, Pick 52: Motive—Best RB or TE available
1st option: RB Javhid Best, Lions … 2nd option: TE Dallas Clark, Cowboys
Round 6, Pick 69 overall: Motive—Best WR with Twitter rep … and Tom Brady as his QB
1st option: WR Chad Ochocinco, Patriots … 2nd option: WR Santana Moss, Redskins
Round 7, Pick 76 overall: Motive—Best QB or high-upside WR available
1st option: QB Matt Schaub, Texans … 2nd option: WR Jerome Simpson, Bengals
Round 8, Pick 93 overall: Motive—Best high-upside wideout available
1st option: WR A.J. Green, Bengals … 2nd option: WR Mario Manningham, Giants
Round 9, Pick 100 overall: Motive—Best RB available
1st option: RB Rashad Jennings, Jaguars … 2nd option: RB James Starks, Packers
Round 10, Pick 117: Motive—Best RB available
1st option: RB Reggie Bush, Dolphins … 2nd option: TE Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Round 11, Pick 124: Motive—Best TE available
1st option: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., Buccaneers … 2nd option: TE Zach Miller, Seahawks
Round 12, Pick 141: Motive—Best high-upside talent available
1st option: RB Mikel Leshoure, Lions … 2nd option: WR Mike Thomas, Jaguars
Round 13, Pick 148: Motive—Best backup-QB available (preferably a handcuff to starting WR)
1st option: QB Kevin Kolb, Cardinals … 2nd option: QB Mark Sanchez, Jets
Round 14, Pick 165: Motive—Best D/ST or kicker available
1st option: D/ST Dallas Cowboys … 2nd option: D/ST Kansas City Chiefs
Round 15, Pick 172: Motive—Best high-upside WR available
1st option: WR Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns … 2nd option: WR Jordy Nelson, Packers
Round 16, Pick 189: Motive—Best kicker on the board
1st option: PK Alex Henery, Eagles … 2nd option: PK Matt Prater, Broncos
I Cannot Leave Without Celebrating …
The life and times of former NFL great Bubba Smith, who died Wednesday at the age of 66. Yes, Bubba was a No. 1 overall draft pick, an all-pro, Super Bowl champion with the Colts and 10-year veteran (1967-76), and yes, Bubba was also a Michigan State alum (like yours truly); but his greatest impact on my life came in the form of the Police Academy movies, specifically Parts I, II, III and V. (Like how I attached Super Bowl-like significance to this franchise?)
I could go 10 or 20 years without seeing some of my best childhood friends from Grosse Ile, Mich. … and within minutes of a reunion, there'd almost certainly be a slew of Police Academy quotes … such as:
**Hightower: "It went it in, didn't it?"
**"Meters don't lie. Meters don't lie." (long pause) … "That's a lying meter. That meter's lying!"
**"Lincoln … Ocean … Victor … Edward … LOVE!"
**"Not the old zoo, the NEW zoo!"
**"What? You've never seen a man take a shower before?"
**"No kidding, Schtulman … you were little?"
**"You, di****ad, you!"
**(Sweetchuck on the motor scooter) … "This is NOT LeMans!"
**"Mauser, have you been putting on weight?"
**"Naked man, sir? I'll get right on top of him!"
**"A good cop KNOWS the city streets."
**"I used to be a real jerk, but now, I'm a people guy!"
**"It's fact-a-hem-ahoa …"
**"CHAMPAGNE!"
**"Hey, Dork!"
**"In a battle between two academies, there can only be one winner, and only one loser … which works out nicely."
**Nogata: "I said bosom, not sword!" … Larvell Jones: "Sounds like a common mistake."
And no Police Academy retrospective would be complete without requisite clips of …
**The Blue Oyster Bar
**The Best of Zed
**"You wanna fight? Fight me!"
**The Best of Dr. Larvell Jones
**The Best of Harris/Proctor
**"Hungry, Diane?"
Godspeed, Bubba. I will always think of you whenever I see a 6-foot-7 man forcefully remove the front seats of a compact vehicle … before learning to drive.
An award-winning fantasy writer with Sports Illustrated (2008-2010) before joining the National Football Post, Jay Clemons' Fantasy Philanthropist Blog can be found here every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Clemons can be reached, day or night, via Twitter.
